Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 17.596641 20.071190 22.737926 25.821598 29.285233 33.051523 37.453063
2025-01-12 13.728437 17.036445 20.877713 25.652526 31.412349 38.119047 46.501974
2025-01-19 11.123153 14.589345 18.815275 24.319397 31.268835 39.718695 50.735037
2025-01-26 9.969254 13.717429 18.482901 24.942480 33.419854 44.109996 58.546876
2025-02-02 9.106344 13.062119 18.277251 25.592901 35.515899 48.421630 66.376308
2025-02-09 8.121552 12.113631 17.558280 25.443483 36.470598 51.225802 72.319624
2025-02-16 7.235723 11.194934 16.768637 25.083593 37.044417 53.472705 77.550478
2025-02-23 6.623563 10.600162 16.363969 25.199051 38.238881 56.578549 84.068902
2025-03-02 6.141624 10.145772 16.110017 25.486369 39.658747 60.032006 91.208777
2025-03-09 5.661827 9.644401 15.734471 25.543602 40.711379 62.973919 97.716322
2025-03-16 5.164746 9.066281 15.187733 25.282982 41.241490 65.140128 103.146513
2025-03-23 4.819502 8.701654 14.940465 25.457474 42.425712 68.311752 110.199311
2025-03-30 4.623152 8.577642 15.081489 26.279089 44.702432 73.310128 120.372971
2025-04-06 4.236158 8.091047 14.588871 26.028740 45.243060 75.638930 126.516644
2025-04-13 3.702487 7.293124 13.505156 24.702550 43.921735 74.922889 127.759737
2025-04-20 3.547794 7.168208 13.567181 25.326121 45.869141 79.534150 137.757571
2025-04-27 3.411006 7.063178 13.652808 25.988623 47.907558 84.374332 148.329586
2025-05-04 3.164974 6.726974 13.295926 25.836118 48.519047 86.860293 155.092625
2025-05-11 2.912086 6.353881 12.841689 25.471446 48.725362 88.655316 160.749925
2025-05-18 2.744030 6.134998 12.658189 25.588435 49.788185 91.947740 169.083905
2025-05-25 2.610452 5.974499 12.572949 25.879862 51.175014 95.851792 178.625749
2025-06-01 2.459576 5.764062 12.374149 25.937895 52.126900 99.022073 187.001843
2025-06-08 2.285193 5.487319 12.022840 25.673585 52.453198 101.079995 193.475358